Can the internet meet the demand?

JANUARY 31, 2010
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Most of the time, the internet “just works” but when the demand for streaming video peaks, the supply can dry up rapidly. That’s what happened on Wednesday when a new electronic gadget was showcased in San Francisco and millions of people around the world tried to watch the event live on their Macs. “Apple’s iPad Event Broke the Internet,” reported PC World.

Major news organisations trailed the event all day and then discovered a blockage in the data pipe as soon as it started. Even bloggers were unable to file their reports, as the software that powers live-blogging of major events clogged up for nearly 20 minutes. By the time the internet plumbers had sorted it out, the event was over and internet services around the world were at a standstill. It was a warning of things to come, whenever too many people try to access the same data at the same time.

In 1881, Clément Ader placed 80 telephones along the front of the stage at the Paris Opera, ready to relay performances to astonished listeners miles away at the Exposition Universelle. It was so successful that the Théatrophone company was soon providing live audio on demand from events across the city to telephone subscribers in their own homes. The business prospered until the arrival of free-to-air radio killed it off in 1932. In the face of broadcasting technology, which is virtually unaffected by the size of its audience, dedicated connections stood no chance. Are things really going to be different this time around?

What used to be called Project Kangaroo emerged into the daylight this week as the almost fully formed SeeSaw online TV service from Arqiva. The invitation-only beta trial describes itself as “a great place to watch TV” and reports suggest that it is working well, even at relatively low bit rates, although beta content is limited to programmes from BBC, Channel 4 and Five. The secret to the success of the SeeSaw service, which is currently advertising-supported, may not rest on the tried and tested Adobe Flash video technology, however, but on how easy it is for users to locate content they want to watch.

Early users with access to the “tons of free TV” already on line – ranging from the 1967 black and white Doctor Who adventure “Tomb Of The Cybermen” to current editions of “Deal Or No Deal” – will probably have no problem finding interesting programmes from the 2,000 hours available. For SeeSaw TV to be a success, however, it will have to look at the way content discovery is developing elsewhere; the beta interface is far from inspiring.

To assess the strain being placed on the internet, consider also some other events that took place this week.

BSkyB delivered its half-year results, revealing that the customer base is nudging 10 million. Sky-HD produced some notable numbers, with net additions of 482,000 taking the total to more than 2 million households. The growth in that area more than justifies the company’s decision to sell only HD-enabled boxes in the future, making customer conversion to high-definition just a phone call away.

The company also hit the headlines with the news that the weekend Premier League clash between Arsenal and Manchester United would be a world first: delivered live in 3D to selected pubs in the UK and Ireland. A regular service follows from April onwards, and because it works with existing Sky+HD boxes, the potential 3D market opens at 2 million so long as viewers are willing to buy a 3D TV set with glasses to match.

In the US, cable operator Comcast is also planning “a persistent 3D offering,” according to Senior VP and General Manager of Video Services Derek Harrar. “Much like we did in high-def, it will start relatively thin and then, much like high-def, we will have more 3D content than anyone else as it becomes available,” he said in an interview on the website HD Update at the start of the week. At a guess, Sky’s pro-active approach places it well in the foreground of this particular game.

Acquiring content and the rights to broadcast in both HD and 3D is far harder than simply announcing plans in the media, as the BBC recognised in its submission to Ofcom for a variation in the terms of the Freeview HD licence. Although reported as a request for a change in anti-copy technology, the underlying motive is to ensure that high quality content will be licensed on the Freeview HD platform.

“Rights-holders are generating appreciable revenues from Blu-ray and pay-TV rights sales,” the BBC wrote in its letter to Ofcom, which pointed out that illegal copying from Freeview HD receivers would limit the availability of films and TV programmes for the service.

A decision is expected by April 2, and if Ofcom agrees as expected, the BBC will be able to acquire HD content “On similar commercial terms, and in similar time-release windows, to those on alternative platforms such as Virgin Media, Freesat, Sky, or BT Vision.”

April could yet be the hottest month for broadcast news.

Back on the ground (or under it, in most cases), Akamai published their latest “State of the Internet” report, a global review of broadband adoption. Today’s successor to the Théatrophone company, Akamai boasts an international network of servers aimed at ensuring reliable content delivery for many leading online brands, putting them in a good position to comment on the growth of broadband use.

The United States retained top spot for the number of internet connections with nearly 120 million unique addresses accessing the Akamai network, a year-on-year increase of 17%. China took the second spot with just under 50 million unique users, a 30% year-on-year growth, while the UK came in sixth, below Japan, Germany and France, with 19,426,576 different connections, up 12% compared with last year.

South Korea retained its world number one position for connection speed, offering an average of 15 Mbps to broadband users while consumers living in the state of Delaware benefited from an average connection speed of 7.2Mbps. Significantly, 63% of connections to Akamai in Delaware were at 5 Mbps or higher. Compare that to the UK government’s intention, declared in its Digital Britain report, to deliver broadband access of at least 2Mbit/s to virtually all UK households by 2012.

According to Akamai, “A connection speed of 2 Mbps is arguably sufficient for standard definition TV-quality video content and 5 Mbps is needed for standard-definition DVD quality.” (That’s for each stream coming into the house.) No estimate is given in the report for the bandwidth needed for HD video streaming although Akamai notes that Blu-Ray 1080p video content has a maximum video bit rate of 40 Mbps.

Some folk talk of moving all our radio and TV connections to the internet using the copper wires that Clément Ader would have recognised in 1881. There’s even speculation that broadcasting could become a thing of the past, once fibre optic data pipes spread across the country. Before we decide to switch off the wireless, though, we should reflect on what happened when Steve Jobs tried to speak to everyone in the world at once.