Friday, January 4, 2013

Strike up the broadband!

November 4, 2011
For an informed view on connected entertainment in the UK & Ireland, visit Cue Entertainment 


Real-time entertainment playback (which excludes downloads) ties up 60% of peak period internet traffic in North America and almost one-third of it comes from Netflix, according to a report by broadband firm Sandvine.

In its “Global Internet Phenomena Report 2011”, Sandvine says that some of this video is viewed on smartphones and tablets but surprisingly, up to 55% is destined for the television screen, either directly through a Smart TV or via a games console or set-top box. Desktop and laptop computers account for much of the remaining 45%, although the report says that even then, users often forward content to their TV.

In the US, at least, Sandvine ascribes much of the growth in this phenomenon to devices such as the Xbox and notes that Microsoft announced a massive expansion in the list of content providers to be made available on the Xbox 360, including such heavyweights as Bravo, Comcast, HBO (which airs “Boardwalk Empire”, pictured), BBC, Telefonica, Rogers on Demand and Televisa.

“Since Microsoft gains revenue from Xbox Live subscriptions, this impressive video line-up serves as a powerful differentiator against the other console manufacturers,” the report says.

Sandvine is a company at the heart of the internet, with customers that serve hundreds of millions of subscribers worldwide, so its report provides some of the most reliable information on broadband usage. The company’s customers gather the data in bulk with no information about individual subscribers. It does, however, enable a moment-by-moment profile of actual service providers, together with an accurate assessment of the varied data needs of users over time both upstream and downstream.

Thus, we learn that in a one-month period, on a single major US network, more than 42,000 individual web sites served at least one streaming video. Put another way, streaming video from sites outside the Top 20 accounts for a significant proportion of all internet data usage. Apple is not the only fruit of the video revolution and neither is YouTube.

Unfortunately, the Sandvine report does not cover countries in Western Europe. The latest document concentrates on North America, Asia-Pacific and the emerging markets of Brazil, Africa and Eastern Europe. Much of the US experience, though, is applicable to the current UK market or is a harbinger of things to come on this side of the Atlantic.

One such trend is a direct result of the increased use of over-the-top (OTT) video services, which has the effect of concentrating intensive broadband usage into a relatively short evening period. To maintain a consistent quality of experience (QOE), the operator has to over-engineer the network to cope with peak demand, which implies that for most of the day the expensive infrastructure remains under-used.

Even this understates the problem. Sandvine reports that the widespread adoption of “rate-adaptive” streaming means that bandwidth use increases to match the performance of the network. Increase the bandwidth and video streams switch automatically to higher definition and reduce the QOE for the viewer as the network becomes overloaded once again. Having paid dearly to ensure the user is happy, the network operator risks accusations of poor service. No wonder there is a trend towards usage-based charging.

In a comment headed “Cloudy with a chance of bill-shock”, Sandvine draws attention to one aspect of content storage in the cloud that is understood poorly. Once, users would sync their content over their local network and transfer from smartphone or camera to laptop or PC. In the brave new world of Apple’s iCloud, content is shared in the cloud. “Instead of consuming no bandwidth when syncing 100 MB of photos back to a computer, cloud syncing will use 100 MB of data when uploading data and an additional 100 MB when downloading to each device connected to the cloud.Cloud services could result in significant additional bandwidth costs and potential bill-shock for consumers,” the report says.

Almost 20% of all mobile data traffic in North America comes from Facebook, the report reveals, followed closely by YouTube at 18.2%. Next on the list but some way behind at 4.7% is the monthly Windows Update from Microsoft. This represents a real running cost for laptop users who use mobile data instead of WiFi to update their device.

The report says, “Almost every smartphone or tablet now sold includes a built-in department store. Google’s Marketplace and Apple’s iTunes are consistently among the top traffic generators on mobile and fixed access networks. In Asia-Pacific, Mobile Marketplaces account for 8.2% of peak mobile network demand, while in North America the figure is 4.7%.”

For accurate data on communications in the UK market, the Ofcom Infrastructure Report published on Nov.1 is a long-awaited definitive source. It covers fixed and mobile telephony, broadband, digital radio and digital terrestrial television, from a UK-wide perspective and at the level of county and unitary authorities.

The headline figure that most people will have seen is the 17GB monthly data usage of the average UK household, the equivalent of downloading around 11 films. The London Internet Exchange (Linx) reports that this figure is seven times greater than five years ago even when business traffic is included. As in North America, UK consumer data usage is concentrated in peak hours although the 6pm to midnight window is wider than the US experience.

What was not so widely reported is the disparity between operators, which varied in proportion to data management policy. Virgin Media subscribers downloaded 25GB per month, around twice the average for a typical operator with a large proportion of its customers on a capped package. “Give UK customers a gigabyte and they’ll take two” is the message.

Although almost every exchange in the UK is now broadband-enabled, some 14% of residential subscribers are still below the 2Mbps government target for 2015. Ofcom says, “We expect the number of sub-2Mbps connections to fall over the coming year as customers upgrade to new technologies and resolve in-home wiring issues that are affecting the speed of their connection.”

It’s a surprise that they place all the blame for slow speeds on the consumer with no reference to dodgy cables and the lack of interest of major operators show in connecting small communities in rural areas. Clearly, when it comes to broadband speeds, the customer is always wrong.

Mobile broadband data usage is clearly on an upward path with 3G connections that deliver an average of 240MB to users each month. WiFi and UMA connections help to offload additional data to lower-cost fixed networks, particularly when users are at home. This is likely to increase as “companion screens” appear in the living room.

Ofcom suggests that its first Infrastructure Report should be regarded as a baseline against which to measure future developments. The Communications Act requires the body to compare the standard of UK networks and services with those in other countries. These metrics ultimately will help government to assess whether it is on target to achieve its ambition to lead Europe in terms of broadband services by 2015.

The investment in infrastructure that is required for the UK to move up the ladder of international broadband competitiveness is a barrier that is not likely to alter between now and next summer when Ofcom plans to publish its “best in Europe” scorecard.

According to data from Akamai’s “State of the Internet” online visualisation, the UK today languishes in 25th place in the world of broadband connection speeds with an average of 5Mbps for fixed lines. Ofcom says the average speed of connection for a 3G dongle is even lower at 2.2Mbps in areas of good coverage and with 29.9% of the geographic UK without a 3G signal from any operator. The UK starts from a low baseline.

The 23-page Sandvine document highlights one statistic from the bizarre world of mobile network economics. Operators typically offset low- and negative-margin services against high-margin services such as SMS, but texting has declined in the face of Instant Messaging services from Skype, Blackberry, WhatsApp and many others. When a major revenue segment falls while network costs remain constant, the price for all services must rise. Apparently, the average revenue earned from delivering over-the-top bytes is in the order of $10 per gigabyte. The estimated average revenue from SMS data is $30,000 per gigabyte.

You should text that to your friends, if you want to avoid an increase in your next mobile data bill.

No comments: