For an informed view on connected entertainment in the UK & Ireland, visit Cue Entertainment
It’s not
certain precisely who observed that you cannot fool all of the people all of
the time but in the fast-paced world of technological magic, innovators are
bound to try.
Contrary
to popular mythology, Charles Holland Duell, the US Patent and Trademark
Commissioner in 1899, did not say “everything that can be invented has been
invented” although it is a point of view that has permeated human thinking
throughout history. Each new device is the ultimate iteration; the must-have
version that surpasses all that went before. Until the next release, that is.
The
future is rarely what we expect but every product has its cycle, measured in
months or years, and what begins as magic becomes commonplace and goes on to be
irrelevant.
In spite
of occasional detours into steam or electric-powered vehicles, personal
transportation powered by the internal combustion engine remains the prime
mover for most people. Although the 21st century box is very different and all
parts are more reliable, when confronted by a modern car a 19th century
automobilist could quickly jump in and drive away. The differences between the
various marques have long ceased to be more than cosmetic.
Many 20th
century movie watchers imagined the future of motoring to be a combination of
Marvell Comics and Star Trek: filled with finned rocket cars and flip-to-talk
communicators. For a while, the “T-Bird” philosophy of engineering fulfilled
the dreams of every boy racer, but first European and then Japanese
manufacturers showed the way forward with cars that were both functional and
reliable. Today, the business of pushing a vehicle along the highway is
secondary in public perception to the comfort and entertainment of its
occupants.
Ford
steered away from this week’s traditional Geneva motor show and chose instead
to stage the European launch of its B-MAX small family car at February’s Mobile
World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona. It sports a “SYNC voice-activated in-car
mobile connectivity system” that Ford of Europe CEO Stephen Odell will rely on
to sell 3.5 million SYNC-equipped cars by 2015.
“It will
be among the most technologically advanced small cars you can buy, at any
price,” says Odell.
Underneath
the hood, Ford’s AppLink voice control allows hands-free use of smartphone apps
on the move, while SYNC links Bluetooth devices and provides iPod and USB
connectivity. In the event of an accident, the system will call for emergency
assistance automatically, using the driver’s mobile phone to make the
connection. No subscription is required: SYNC comes with the car and it is in
use already in 4 million vehicles in the US.
In a
keynote address to the MWC, Ford Motor Company Executive Chairman Bill Ford,
the founder’s great grandson said “Telecommunication companies should work with
the automotive industry to provide an enhanced communications environment for
drivers and passengers on the move.” He predicted that the next five years
would see connected cars linked to the cloud and vehicles that “talk” to each
other to make driving safer and report delays and diversions as they happen.
Other
manufacturers such as BMW and Nissan have jumped on board the connected
bandwagon. BMW ConnectedDrive and Infotainment VP Michael Würtenberger said the
firm’s ConnectedDrive service is available in nine countries now and will be
available in 38 countries around the world by 2015.
A study
conducted by the mobile industry association GSMA and Machina Research predicts
that connected cars will be a $600 billion (£380 billion) business by 2020.
Pay-as-you-drive insurance (telematics) will account for a further $225 billion
(£140 billion) and other usage models add $245 billion (£155 billion) to the
market value. Up to 90% of vehicles on the road are expected to have some form
of in-car connectivity by the end of the decade, including entertainment,
navigation, and stolen vehicle recovery and insurance telematics.
A
reliable and permanent in-car link to the cloud would bring opportunities and
challenges for the entertainment industry. As this century moves into its
teens, motorists on the move will want access to the content they watch and
listen to at home without the need for physical media. On-board storage
proposals to date suggest that cars parked outside the house will preload news
and topical content over wifi or Bluetooth, then access and play digital
content on demand during the journey.
In a
connected future, streaming video enters the scene and the “embedded” mobile
hardware in a connected car becomes just another device on the owner’s
UltraViolet roster. It is all part of M2M (machine-to-machine) technology: a
world in which the devices that we use will talk to each other without
conscious input from the user.
According
to the Mobile Data Traffic Forecast prepared by network technology company
Cisco, by the end of this year the number of mobile connected devices will
exceed the population of the earth. Come 2016, there will be more than 10
billion mobile devices, M2M included, which equates to 1.4 devices per person.
On a replacement basis alone, that number will continue to increase thereafter.
The data demand for M2M devices will rise more than seven-fold by 2016 from a
very low starting point in 2010. It will still be less than 2% of total mobile
internet traffic.
Video
exceeded all other traffic for the first time in 2011 and it now accounts for
52% of all mobile internet data. That figure will rise to more than 70% by
2016. Looked at in a different way, the Cisco forecast predicts a 25-fold
increase in video traffic between 2011 and 2016.
Every day
sees the announcement of a new mobile gadget and we have come to expect that
Apple alone will introduce ever-more amazing iPhones and iPads each year. As
the latest announcements have shown, the innovation phase is all but over and
we are in an era of refinement, one that the automobile industry has been in
for many years.
The
television set in the corner of the room is at a plateau too, as flat screens
reach their practical limit of flatness and thinness. In the UK, we spend
around five hours every day gazing in its direction, consuming a non-stop flow
of broadcast data that reaches every corner of these islands without the need
for copper or fibre pipes. Each day, viewers burn their way through the
equivalent of around 11.25GB of data “watching telly,” which adds up to well
over 300GB per month.
Then
consider the tablet. The “resolutionary new iPad” Apple calls its version,
which has a three megapixel HD Retina display that offers 2048×1536 HD video in
a 9.5 x 7.3 inch frame. It is so sharp that you need a magnifying glass to
appreciate it. So it will not come as a surprise if proud owners spend more
time watching video on their new tablet than they did on the previous version:
perhaps even in HD if they can afford the data charges.
The Cisco
report reveals that users spend a relatively meagre amount of time watching
video on a tablet. In 2010, tablet users consumed an average of 405 Mbytes of
online data each month. Not all of that was video, of course, but assuming a
generous connection speed of 500 kilobits per second when watching video, that
equates to a total running time of just under two minutes. Last year, the
duration of video viewing rose to two and a quarter minutes per month and by
2016 Cisco predicts that per-device usage of data by tablet owners will
increase to 4.2 Mbytes, almost 10 minutes of video per month at low quality
standard definition.
Averages
conceal the exceptions although Cisco reports that 1% of all mobile users
consumed more than 5 GB per month last year. Just 3% used more than 3 GB per
month, which is less than 1% of the equivalent data consumed when watching
digital TV. Streaming online video to a tablet, although interesting, is the
pastime of a very few mobile subscribers.
Laptop
users are far more profligate in their use of the cloud. They are forecast to
notch up more than 15 minutes of streaming video per month by 2016 but at least
they have the option that they may insert a DVD and take their video
entertainment with them, without any further charges.
In the
third of his three laws, Arthur C Clarke said, “Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from magic,” and for some years the products
that emanate from the Apple fun factory have proved him right. The decision to
call the new iPad just that, and not “version 3” or the “iPad S” is probably a
wise limitation of expectations. The screen is certainly near photographic in
quality but it comes at a price. Most other improvements are just that,
especially as European owners cannot (yet) benefit from the LTE connectivity.
Steve
Jobs probably did not say, “You can fool all of the people all of the time.”
But he could have.
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