Saturday, January 5, 2013

Infrastructure more than speed

January 17, 2012
For an informed view on connected entertainment in the UK & Ireland, visit Cue Entertainment 



The high-speed train (HS2) might eventually leave Euston station in 2026 but high-speed broadband has arrived and it has delivered quantifiable benefits to the UK economy for a while.

The UK communications sector must blaze a trail in the global economy but it will need infrastructure and not speed for this to become a reality.

“Internet Matters”, a report published last May by McKinsey and Company, puts the UK in second place in the list of countries with the largest contribution from the internet to gross domestic product (GDP).

This month sees the publication of two significant reports on 21st century infrastructure. In the UK, the business lobbyist CBI released “Blazing a trail: The UK communications sector in a global economy”. This 12-page document sets out the conditions that Britain will need in order to maximise the growth potential of the sector, which the CBI defines as both the telecommunications and content creation industries.

Report author Samantha Abrahams writes, “Individual industries are world leaders: we are the largest producer of television and radio content in Europe, UK internet advertising has demonstrated the largest and steadiest growth of all European countries since 2004 and the UK is the largest games market in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. With such global potential, it is not surprising that recent studies have shown the direct link between a dynamic communications sector and a strong economy.”

The CBI calls for the government to ensure that the sector remains in a strong competitive position in the face of increasing global competition, through a revised Communications Act, a policy framework that encourages investment in content and infrastructure and “a regulatory environment that promotes innovation and competition.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, the US Department of Commerce published a weightier tome, “The Competitiveness and Innovative Capacity of the United States” (pictured), which provides an American perspective on many of the issues considered by the CBI.

The report said, “In the past, the United States led the way in several key areas of infrastructure development, starting with the railroad system of the 1800s, an innovation that greatly reduced travel times and allowed more robust commerce between the states and the rest of the world. In today’s economy with global supply chains, exports to foreign markets, telework, and justintime inventories the nature of infrastructure needed to compete is changing. The United States needs a 21st century infrastructure to ensure that it remains competitive.

On the subject of broadband, the target set by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is for 100 million US households to have a download speed of 50 Mbps or better by 2015, rising to 100 Mbps by 2020. What is significant is the parallel commitment that every community across the United States should have affordable access to services of at least 1 Gbps in schools, hospitals and government buildings.

The US report cites the earlier work of McKinsey when it says: “Internetrelated consumption and expenditure is now bigger than agriculture or energy, accounting for as much as 6% of GDP in advanced countries such as Sweden and the United Kingdom. This information is instructive for inhabitants of the British Isles, particularly those obsessed with speed as the only measure of broadband performance.

McKinsey reported that, at 5.4% of GDP, the benefit of the internet to the UK economy was greater than that in South Korea (4.6%), Japan (4.0%) or the USA (3.8%) all countries that appear frequently in lists of exemplary broadband nations. The average figure across the major countries surveyed was 3.4% and only Sweden, with 6.3% of GDP from the internet, kept the UK from the top spot.

What pushes the UK down the list of nations in many surveys is the figure for the average speed of broadband connection. While Britain struggles to meet a universal service obligation of 2Mbps in rural areas, superfast broadband and fibre to the home (FTTH) bring connection speeds of 100 Mbps and more to subscribers in countries around the world.

European Commission Vice President Neelie Kroes said recently, “To match world leaders like South Korea and Japan, Europe needs download rates of 30 Mbps for all of its citizens.” The CBI argues that figures such as this do not provide an ideal basis for comparison with other parts of the world.

Its report says, “Accessible, high-quality broadband has a vital role in ensuring the UK remains competitive as a place to invest, The benefits are felt most keenly by SMEs as research shows that better access to broadband services can enable small businesses to access previously impenetrable markets and reduce costs and improve efficiency.”

The organisation calls for a new benchmark to assess the comparative performance of broadband in the UK that would provide a more effective basis for comparison with countries such as Singapore, which will always have a geographical advantage in terms of speed alone.

It suggests that a basket of indicators, in which speed is just one element, will help calculate the UK’s standing in the digital world. It would include indicators such as access and take-up of broadband services, private sector investment, digital exports and literacy, the volume of e-commerce and the number of sector start-ups. Together, this data would provide what the CBI identifies as a “truer picture of the vitality of the digital economy”.

Yet speed for its own sake continues to dominate the agenda in the popular culture. Headlines earlier this month shouted: “Virgin Media boosts broadband speeds. Next-generation speeds to catapult UK up international rankings.” Reports quoted Virgin Media CEO Neil Berkett who said, “We want to make sure that consumers have access to the best-value broadband service and that means a superfast connection.”

Double the speed is good news if your current connection is 10 Mbps, it is far from a given that a jump from 50 Mbps to 100 Mbps will make any perceptible difference to the average user, as the CBI points out. To double the speed sounds good on paper but the connection between value for money and superfast broadband is tenuous at best. Unless a household is blessed with three teenaged gamers and parents who like to watch HD movies online in different rooms, the maximum speed will seldom be approached. 
The bandwidth will be throttled long before it reaches the consumer.

By mid-2013, Virgin customers will be able to stand at the water-cooler and tell envious colleagues that they “got 120 Mbps last night”. They would have to run the speed-tester at 4 a.m. and since that bit-rate is the equivalent of three Blu-ray discs and some “World Of Warcraft” played simultaneously is unlikely that anything other than the occasional data spike will reach the headline figure.

However fast a broadband connection might be, there always will be calls for more speed and the consumer electronics industry is adept at designing products that take advantage of every increase in bandwidth. At this year’s CES show in Las Vegas, Samsung announced the Dual-View HD TV, which allows viewers to watch two entirely different HD channels on the same screen and at the same time. Using active shutter glasses with built-in headphones, the demonstration featured a feature film and a music concert running simultaneously. Clearly, the family that watches TV together stays together even if the entertainment is not the same.

There always is the suspicion that to downplay the need for broadband speed is akin to the early 19th century Liverpool landowners, who doubted that human beings could survive the terrifying speeds reached by Stephenson’s “Rocket”. A BBC Radio 4 listener said of the announcement of the HS2 rail link, “The two-hour journey time from Warrington to London Euston is fast enough for anybody.” Speed for its own sake does not bring prosperity.

The report should be required reading for our lawmakers, identifying as it does the barriers to innovation that can result from cumbersome legislation. It quotes from research by Ernst & Young that shows that the UK’s telecommunications and technology infrastructure is the single most important attraction for foreign companies considering investment here. “It is greater than the stable social environment, education in trade and academia, and even the strength of the financial services sector,” the research shows.

The CBI points out that consumer appetite for access to information and content through digital platforms continues to increase, with e-sales in September 2011 up 15% on the previous year, in an otherwise stagnant retail market. It says, “Companies must react quickly to meet the needs of consumers or risk losing them as customers.”

Regulators must respond with the same alacrity or else the digital economy will run out of steam before it has really started.

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