3D waiting to hatch

October 04, 2010
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Two-thirds of US consumers say the reason they have yet to buy 3D technology for the home is down to a lack of content. According to Consumer Electronics Association Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac, that’s a good thing.

“That’s a great reason to see at the top of the list because we know it goes away,” he says. “By the end of the year, dozens more movies will be available. There will be more Blu-ray Discs, more players capable of rendering the 3D image, more content available through traditional subscription models.”

The CEA represents the US hardware industry and organises the giant Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas each January. This year, it polled 250 sales staff in stores across America, asking them how confident they are about selling 3D and how how potential customers respond to the technology.

Speaking at the ESCA Edge conference in London last week, DuBravac reported a high level of enthusiasm at the point of sale, with store staff confident they are well trained to handle consumer enquiries.

It’s no surprise that many consumers see a lack of ready 3D content but DuBravac notes that content production is accelerating in all genres. “The amount of 3D available today is significantly more than in previous iterations of 3D. Critics may say, ‘It wasn’t very successful in the ’50s or the ’80s,’ but it’s really not a like-for-like comparison,” he says.

“In 1983, the year of ‘Jaws 3D’, the total 3D production was six titles. The year 2009 saw 25 films produced in 3D and by the end of 2010 a further 43 3D films will have been completed. That doesn’t include everything that providers such as Sky and others are doing here in Europe.”

He acknowledges the “chicken and egg” situation, in which there is not enough content until you sell more hardware and in order to do that, you need more content. “That is where we are now, and where we will be for the next year,” he says.

As content availability increases, DuBravac points out that products such as the Panasonic consumer 3D camcorder will serve to boost public demand for 3D.

When staff in retail stores were asked by the CEA, “What types of information would you like to have that will help you explain and/or sell 3D TVs to shoppers?” the main request was for more information on when content will be available (78%) and what type of content that will be – both today (77%) and in the future (73%).

One of the initiatives the CEA launched in the US, which DuBravac recommends should be adopted in Europe, is to make retailers aware of 3D content release dates as soon as possible. This supports hardware sales staff when potential customers say there’s not enough content available.

“We are making lists for use in store showing the Blu-ray movies and other content that is going to be available in 3D. That will help consumers and sales staff to overcome a significant obstacle to the purchase of a 3D TV,” he says.

Many people have views on 3D without having actually seen it, or at least not for many years, which DuBravac calls the “legacy of 3D” effect. “It was easy to convince buyers that HD was different. The introduction of the 16:9 flat panel screens offered a completely different experience from the old tube TVs,” he notes. “With 3D, we don’t need to convince them that it is different, they already understand that. We have to convince them that the 3D of today is different to 3D in the past.”

The CEA also posed a simple question to shoppers entering stores, “When you think of 3D, which decade do you think of?” Of those who answered “2000 and beyond”, 86% were under 40. DuBravac says, “They are new to 3D, they are convinced that it’s a future technology and they weren’t exposed to the 3D of the 1950s, or the 70s. Significantly, 36% of consumers who plan to buy a 3D TV within the next three years think of 3D as a product of the year 2000 or later.

“Older generations – the over-40s who have watched 3D before – have seen it come and go, and they have to be convinced that today’s 3D differs from the paper anaglyph glasses of the past,” says DuBravac. “Though whatever the age of the potential customer, there is a continuing need to get the message across that this time 3D is much better.”

All the evidence from the CEA survey points to the fact that “seeing is believing”. DuBravac says, “Consumers are really impressed with 3D in the theatrical environment and 81% express satisfaction with the overall 3D experience in the cinema. Just 4% were neutral and the remaining 15% included those who, for one reason or another, cannot see in 3D.”

He says that the research shows experience trounces objection and as consumers’ experience 3D, their objections fall away. Before watching 3D for the first time, about one in three says, “Glasses will be a real distraction, they might hurt my eyes.” After seeing 3D first-hand, that objection falls to one in five.

In the US, about 20% of consumers entering participating stores had already seen 3D TV, whether in their home or elsewhere, and about half of that group saw it first at retail. “That number will continue to grow. An overwhelming 76% of these consumers report a positive experience with 3D, describing it as ‘very good’, ‘great’, or ‘excellent’,” says DuBravac.

When asked if they plan to seek out 3D demonstrations after they enter the store, 65% replied that they would. “This first experience is paramount. We have to get them in front of that 3D TV, let them see and experience it at first hand so that they can understand how it is different, why it is different and why they would want to bring it into their homes,” the economist says.

He emphasizes the importance of ensuring that the demonstration is a real 3D experience and not just 2D on a 3D screen. “A number of retail stores have been showing ‘Avatar’ in hi-def on a 3D screen but as we know, the 3D Blu-ray has yet to be released,” says DuBravac. “Consumers come in, look at the screen and say ‘It’s OK but I expected more,’ and this is because they are not experiencing 3D.”

Whether due to problems with issuing glasses or other constraints in the stores, DuBravac warns that content owners working with retailers to promote 3D must ensure that what is shown really is in 3D, so that consumers may have the authentic experience.

The CEA has seen many technologies come and go over the years and some, such as high definition television (HDTV), have gone on to be very successful. “In 2003, we asked consumers when they planned to move on to HDTV, and one in three replied ‘Never’. In this survey, we asked a very similar question and a much smaller proportion, just one in five, said they will never buy a 3D TV,” DuBravac says.

Comparing demand in Europe with the US, he reports very similar characteristics for 3D adoption. “With3D TV, people are more likely to reply ‘I’m not sure when I will own it,’ or ‘I’ll probably own it at some time in the next three years’,” he says, “These are the people we must pull into the market by giving them the experience of 3D at first hand. Once they do experience it, they are much more likely to buy 3D TV.”

Time will tell whether these 3D chickens are ready to come home to roost, even if the golden egg has yet to hatch. From the evidence presented by the CEA, Q4 this year promises to be a decisive period in the evolution of stereoscopic 3D television.